Local elections loom in East Sussex

As most of East Sussex, but not Hastings, prepares to head to the polls for local elections next month, HOT’s Chris Connelley casts an eye over the runners and riders and the prospects for the main political parties.

Though voters here in Hastings are untroubled by local elections this Spring, we are very much the exception, with every other borough and district authority in the county up for re-election.

And, as this parliament enters its final phase, with a general election highly likely next year, party strategists from all sides will be keeping a close eye on what happens locally in the South East on Thursday 4 May as they weigh up their prospects for the bigger prize.

Traditionally, the region has been a ‘true blue’ stronghold, with all the parliamentary constituencies in East Sussex electing Conservative MPs when the nation last went to the polls back in 2019.

At local level, however, the situation is more mixed, with just one council, rural Wealden, returning a comfortable overall Conservative majority when the seats were last contested in 2019. In that election, the Conservatives took 30 seats, although they have subsequently lost two following Green Party by-election wins, giving them four seats, just behind the LibDems on six, with a cluster of Independents also on six.

Hung councils

Rother and Lewes District Councils, usually safely blue, also saw significant shifts away from their usual political preference in 2019, both becoming ‘hung’ councils with no single party enjoying overall control.

In Lewes, the Conservatives dropped back from 24 to 19 councillors, with the Liberal Democrats, on eight, and the Greens, up from three to eight, the main beneficiaries. For the last four years, these two parties have worked collaboratively, as a Co-operative Alliance, with input from the four-strong Labour group and one independent, effectively operating the Council as a ‘four party’ coalition.

Over the term, the local authority has attracted wide interest for its championing of the so-called Lewes Model, which has prioritised the insulation and ‘greening’ of social housing through a collaborative approach with six other councils, effectively creating a local supply chain, and both the Liberal Democrats and Greens will be hoping this new approach generates dividends in terms of further advances.

The LibDems will be especially interested in the results, mindful that the parliamentary seat of Lewes, currently held by the Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Mental Health and Minister for Women, Maria Caulfield, with a modest 2,457 majority, is one of their top targets for the next general election. Labour will be hoping that its commanding national poll lead translates into a stronger local presence, buoyed by a surprise by-election win from the LibDems in 2021.

Rother – which takes in Bexhill, Battle, Rye, Winchelsea and a number of surrounding villages – also witnessed a Conservative decline in the last local election, but for different reasons. Attempts to block the establishment of  a Bexhill Town Council by the former Conservative administration led to a backlash at the polls in 2019, with many previously Conservative wards in and around Bexhill opting for candidates committed to the establishment of a town council.

Rother Alliance

On a bad night for the Tories, who lost 17 seats, Independents picked up nine,  the Liberal Democrats five and Labour two. The Greens also took their first council seat, in Bexhill Old Town. As in Lewes, this eclectic collective put aside specific differences and came together to form the Rother Alliance, with a commitment to deliver a Bexhill Town Council, open up the Council and reach out to neighbouring Councils.

A number of wards in Rother form part of the Hastings and Rye parliamentary constituency, and Labour’s parliamentary candidate, Helena Dollimore, and her team have been visible on the doorsteps in Rye and its surrounding villages during the early days of the campaign. They will be hoping to win the seat back from Sally-Ann Hart, the current MP, who recently won the backing of her local party members following a deselection challenge from the executive of the local Conservative Association.

In the last election, Eastbourne maintained its recent tradition of electing a majority Liberal Democrat Council, with 18 councillors to the Conservatives’ nine. This borough is very much a two-horse race, with no serious expectation that Labour and the Greens will break through this time around.

Like Lewes, it is a key Liberal Democrat target seat for the general election – and the site of a number of recent visits by party leader Ed Davey – where prospective candidate, Josh Babarinde, hopes to displace the current incumbent, Conservative Caroline Ansell, whose majority in 2019 was just 4,331.

Greens vs Labour in Brighton

Slightly further afield, the City of Brighton and Hove is also holding all–out elections this year, where the main battle is between the Greens and Labour. The former are currently the largest party on the city council, with 20 seats to Labour’s 15, in the city that for many is synonymous with radical chic and, since 2010, has elected the nation’s only Green MP, Caroline Lucas.

The Greens will be hoping to take overall control of the council but can expect a spirited challenge from Labour, who currently hold the other two parliamentary seats in the City, and are also confident they can form a majority.

So, with just under a month to go, all the parties have much to play for. Labour will be looking for evidence that their strong lead in national polls is boosting them locally, and that they are on target to win here in Hastings and Rye, a key marginal that has proved elusive for them in the last three general elections, despite consistently slim Conservative majorities.

The Liberal Democrats will be hoping for good news in Lewes and Eastbourne, both traditionally strong areas with winnable parliamentary seats given a fair wind, whilst the Greens will be hoping to extend their coverage in Lewes and Wealden, and to further establish their reputation as major players across the whole county.

The Conservatives will probably be pleased to simply limit the extent of their losses, and to re-establish credibility after the short-lived Truss premiership last summer, which led to major market turbulence and had a disastrous impact for them in the polls.

For the first time, voters will have to show photo ID in these elections. Political parties and psephologists will watch with interest to see what effect this has on voting numbers and which parties are hit.

 

 

 

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