Blue Thursday for the Tories

HOT’s Chris Connelley casts an eye over the local election results on a bleak day for the Conservatives, which saw them lose their one remaining council and face a total wipeout in Lewes.

As the sun rose on Friday 5 May, the morning for all the Sussex election counts, overnight results from across the country suggested that it was not a great day to wear a blue rosette. It was becoming apparent that more recent red wall switchers in places like Stoke-on-Trent were falling out of love with their adopted party, whilst closer to home, in Medway, a well-established tradition of Conservative dominance ended, with 13 seats changing hands to give Labour control of the council for the first time in 20 years.

Medway was also the location for Sir Keir Starmer’s morning-after photo opportunity, at which he told local Labour members, “You didn’t just get it over the line. You blew the doors off. We’ve won the trust and confidence of voters and now we can go on and change our country.”

As our recent preview of elections in East Sussex demonstrated, and perhaps contrary to expectation, just one borough and district council, Wealden, went into these local elections with a Conservative overall majority. Lewes and Rother District Councils have had no  single party in overall control since 2019, whilst Eastbourne is a majority Liberal Democrat council. Brighton and Hove City Council was also in no overall control, with the Greens as the largest party.

By mid-afternoon on Friday, Wealden had also lost its Conservative majority, catapulting it into the territory of no overall control following a dismal performance by the majority party. They lost 20 seats, with the Greens and Liberal Democrats the main beneficiaries, each gaining nine. Labour, hitherto unrepresented on the authority, took two seats to secure its presence in the council chamber for the first time.

Lewes was the source of even more dramatic results, with the Conservatives, until 2019 comfortably in control, completely wiped out. They lost 19 seats in all, with the Greens, up eight, the Liberal Democrats, up seven and Labour, up six, all benefiting from their rout.

The council is now made up of 17 Greens, 15 Liberal Democrats and nine Labour councillors. For the last four years, it has been run as a Progressive Alliance, comprising Greens, Liberal Democrats, Labour and one independent. With different permutations now possible, the new shape of the authority for the next four years is expected to emerge after the Coronation Bank Holiday weekend.

More losses in Rother

The drama continued into the early evening, when results from Rother reinforced the scale of the Conservative defeat in East Sussex. They lost four seats, with Labour and the Greens picking up seven councillors between them, including some from independents, to produce another period of administration without any party enjoying overall control.

Although Hastings did not vote on Thursday, some wards forming part of Rother council sit within the Hastings and Rye parliamentary constituency, and are of particular interest to campaigners here. Helena Dollimore, Labour’s prospective parliamentary candidate, has been visible on the doorsteps of Rye and Winchelsea over recent weeks and will be delighted that both these areas returned Labour councillors on election day.

A Labour insider present at the count commented, “In the three wards that fall within the Hastings & Rye constituency this was our best performance since the 1990s. We had never won Rye & Winchelsea ward and last won Rye in 2011. Our share of the vote was much higher than in 2011 and this is the first time this century that we have won both seats in Rye. We were also happy to see a very strong and much-improved performance in the rural areas of Southern and Eastern Rother.”

Eastbourne saw least movement, with just one seat changing colour as the Liberal Democrats, already enjoying a strong 2:1 majority on the council, gained a further seat in Meads, a traditional Tory stronghold in the town. They were also just 21 votes from unseating the Conservative group leader in the same ward, and will be in buoyant mood for the upcoming general election, where incumbent Conservative Carole Ansell is defending a majority of just 4,331 against their man Josh Babarinde.

Brighton Greens take a drubbing

The final results came in from Brighton and Hove, where the major battle was between the Greens and Labour for control of the City Council in this most fashionable coastal location, and the political home of the nation’s only Green MP, Caroline Lucas. On the day, Labour were the clear victors, taking 13 of the Greens 20 seats, including those of the former Green council leader and deputy leader, and seven more from the Conservatives, halving their representation. Labour now form a majority administration in the city for the first time for 20 years.

Interactive chart of gains and losses across Sussex as a whole, where Tory losses of 106 seat accounted for about 10% of their 1,055 losses across England.

MPs at risk

As the dust settles, East Sussex, formerly the bluest of blue areas now presents a diverse mix of red, green and yellow. Any expectations of a bounce-back from poor 2019 results were completely dashed as the Greens, Liberal Democrat and Labour parties made significant advances across the region. The effect will be unsettling for the region’s MPs, still largely Conservative, with Maria Caulfield, Caroline Ansell and Sally-Anne Hart especially vulnerable in Lewes, Eastbourne and Hastings & Rye respectively.

The Greens will be delighted to have almost tripled their representation, to have made advances in Lewes, Wealden and Rother, and to have gained more new councillors than the other parties, but will be bitterly disappointed with the result in neighbouring Brighton and Hove.

Hastings Green Group  leader Julia Hilton commented, “Thanks to the enormous energy, hard work and determination of local Green party activists, the political map has been re-drawn across East Sussex with no Conservative administration in power except at the county council. There are now 37 Green councillors across the county, up from 13 in 20021, almost trebling our numbers. We look forward to adding to that number in 2024”.

The Liberal Democrats will be pleased to have gained 19 councillors, and will be mindful that gains made in Lewes and Eastbourne, their ‘hotspot’ authorities, strengthen their hand in two of their key parliamentary target seats.

Labour, until recently a rank outsider across the county outside of Hastings, finds itself with a presence in every council except Eastbourne, and to have taken majority control of the notoriously elusive Brighton and Hove City Council, where incoming council leader Bella Sankey said, “There has been a political earthquake in Brighton and Hove and we are ready to lead. We have managed to unite the city under our vision for a better Brighton and Hove with our radical and transformative manifesto.”

These local election results represent a new low for the Conservatives, after a turbulent period that has seen two prime ministers come and go in this single Parliament before the appointment of Rishi Sunak last autumn. Hopes that their prospects might be on the up following the replacement of Liz Truss proved illusory, and with the clock ticking down to the national poll, a Labour poll lead of around 9% and a significantly reduced local presence, the mood in the party is likely to be jittery in the months ahead.

 

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