Coronavirus daily statistical update: plateau near for hospital numbers in the South East?
As the coronavirus works its way towards peak effect, HOT is providing a daily update of the statistics for our region provided by the public health authorities. Signs emerged today that the number of hospitalised patients in the South East may be plateauing. Text and charts by Russell Hall.
There were 316 confirmed Covid-19 cases to 10 April in East Sussex, an increase of 15 on the previous day, and 30 Covid-19 deaths recorded in East Sussex to 10 April with two new deaths recorded yesterday. The peak of the epidemic is expected sometime in the coming week.
There were no new healthcare statistics released today but in the South East the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 is within 100 of 2,000 for the fourth day running starting on 7 April, indicating that this number is plateauing.
Public Health England reported that as of 9am on 11 April, 334,974 tests had been concluded across the UK, with 18,091 tests carried out in the past 24 hours (down by 1,025 since the previous day).
Altogether 269,598 people have been tested, of whom 78,991 (29.3%) tested positive.
As of 5pm on 10 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 9,875 have died, a daily increase of 917.
The difference between the cumulative numbers from today and yesterday for positive cases is one lower than the daily increase figure. This is due to double counting of a case in Wales from the previous day.
The difference between the cumulative numbers from today and yesterday for number of cases is 47 lower than the daily increase figures. This is due to Public Health England correcting some errors in their historical data.
Imperial College estimates that 4.38% of the total UK population have been infected with the novel coronavirus over the course of the epidemic as of 10 April, with a 95% credible interval of 1,975,483 to 4,283,607 people – that is, the range within which we are 95% sure that the true number of people infected lies.
There are striking regional differences in the number of cumulative confirmed cases in England. London is currently the epicentre of the epidemic across the country with 16,721 confirmed cases, up 710 in a day.
The South West region has by far the fewest number of cumulative confirmed cases in England – 2,963, less than half the number of confirmed cases in the South East with 7,872.
The map below shows the number of confirmed cases across the English NHS regions per 100,000 population.
The global epicentre of the pandemic is the US, which has become the first country in the world to record more than 2,000 coronavirus deaths in a single day.
Caveats
A number of caveats need to be borne in mind regarding the statistics:
1. With respect to testing, cases are reported when lab tests are completed, which may be a few days after initial testing.
2. Testing capacity is increasing, resulting in a greater number of observed cases.
3. Testing capacity constraints mean there are likely many more cases than currently recorded here.
4. Deaths include only those in hospital and exclude those in the community and care homes.
5. There is a delay in many deaths being recorded from a few days to up to two weeks.
6. Deaths tend to be recorded around three weeks after first symptoms in fatal cases.
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