By-election hots up as 20 November approaches

It’s only a by-election for a county councillor but the contest for the vacant Ashdown & Conquest seat on the soon-to-be-abolished East Sussex County Council is shaping up as a bellwether for East Sussex’s electoral future. Text by Nick Terdre, research and graphics by Russell Hall.

Will victory go to Reform UK in the 20 November county council by-election? The polls indicate so. HOT’s last report on the by-election, published on 11 October, showed Reform and Labour running neck-and-neck, a situation which was thought likely to provoke tactical voting among supporters of other parties.

That may still be the situation, especially in view of what happened last month in the Caerphilly by-election for a seat in the Senedd (Welsh parliament). Here, despite predictions of a Reform victory, the Plaid Cymru candidate romped home with 47.4% of the vote, leaving Reform trailing with 36%. Labour, whose safe seat it had been, polled just 11% as it appeared that many of its supporters voted tactically with the aim of keeping Reform out.

There is a marmite quality about Reform – people either love it or hate it. And that could be a factor in the Ashdown & Conquest by-election. However, Reform and Labour are no longer running neck-and-neck – it appears that Reform has pulled ahead. According to the latest Electoral Calculus poll of Westminster voting intentions, including tactical voting, Reform, with a predicted vote share of 35.3%, would have a 62% chance of winning Hastings & Rye if a general election were held now (fieldwork carried out between 3 and 27 October).

Labour, with a predicted vote share of 28.7%, would have only a 28% chance of winning. The other parties are some way behind: the Conservatives (predicted vote share of 12.8% and 6% chance of winning) are only just ahead of the Greens (11.7%, 2%), who have surged in popularity nationally since Zack Polanski took over as leader.

While tactical voting made a clear difference in Caerphilly, that may have been due to the particular characteristics of that by-election – on analysing the Electoral Calculus poll data, expert psephologist Sir John Curtice concluded that tactical voting alone would not deprive Reform of victory in a general election – it would require dissuading voters from voting for them in the first place.

In Hastings & Rye, Electoral Calculus’s latest poll of Westminster voting intentions shows that between 27 September and 28 October, both Reform and Labour lost ground, but Labour more than Reform, opening up a gap of more than 6% between the two. The other parties gained ground, but still lag a long way behind the frontrunners.

At ward level the gap between Reform and Labour is more than 10% in Ashdown (HOT has seen the figures under licence but is not allowed to make them public). As at constituency level, support for both these parties has fallen since the previous forecast, but increased for the other parties, though they remain well behind the two leaders.

Independent candidate

When nominations for candidates for the Ashdown & Conquest by-election closed, it turned out there was one surprise independent runner: Ricky Hodges, a dissident member of Reform. He had intended to stand for the party, but instead the job went to Aidan Fisher.

Hodges was not happy. “…through poor decision making and lack of knowledge of this area [Reform] decided to nominate a candidate that does not, and has never lived in this Town,” he told the Facebook group Hastings Decides 2025. “The Reform candidate does not understand the issues that we have faced as a community and he certainly does not know how to fix them…I do.”

He has proposed  a platform consisting of four planks: revive our fishing heritage, invest in our youth through sport, support local skills and businesses, and honour and support our veterans.

His keenness to demonstrate his anti-wokeness has led him into vituperative exchanges on Hastings Decides. At one point he wrote:

“The Leftist, woke BS that I refer to is the idea that you hide behind banners of ‘tolerance’ and ‘kindness’ but in reality you are nothing more than red fascists that have more hate in your hearts than the famous Austrian painter of 1938. You use this deception to intimidate and protest against people and policies to push your Communist ideology. Silencing, cancelling and slandering is your preferred choice, but only because you are mentally and physically weak people.”

Hodges’ candidature could lead to the Reform vote being split. The Reform constitution calls for any member who stands against a party candidate in an election to have their membership revoked by the chairman. The chairman, Austin Tansley, told HOT that Hodges was rejected as a candidate as “he didn’t meet the requirements”; but while seeking guidance on his decision to stand as an independent, Tansley personally felt his membership should only be suspended.

Meanwhile Hodges might do well to spend more time trying to sell himself to voters rather than provoking lefties and liberals online. As reported by a friend of HOT living on the new Holmhurst St Mary estate off The Ridge, the election material he had received up to 10 November included nothing from either Hodges or Caroline Kerswell, the Tory candidate, one A4 letter from Fisher, two A4 leaflets and two A4 letters from the Lib Dems’ Martin Griffiths, one A4 letter and one A5 leaflet from Labour’s Amanda Pollard and two A3 leaflets and one A6 card from the Greens’ Paula Warne.

Meeting people and listening

Meanwhile Aidan Fisher, the official Reform candidate, told HOT that his campaign was “…all about meeting people and listening to them to understand what is important and how if elected I can help,  rather than shouting in social media as to what I or others might guess is important!

“I have learnt many things from my conversations with residents. By way of example some people feel the council is letting them down regarding adult care, some mention the house building without additional community facilities. Many feel that they are not listened to, with the house building on Harrow Lane Playing Fields, despite local objections, often cited.

“But most of all it’s the state of the roads, both the intractable multiple year endless shuffle of vehicles from one so called temporary traffic light to another which is a travesty known as “Queensway Gateway” and total disgust expressed at the potholes in the area.”

On the possibility of the Reform vote being split, he said, “…if Mr Hodges does take votes primarily from Reform, then I think the unintended consequences of voting for Mr Hodges is that it becomes a vote for the Greens.” Fisher said he would be out pounding the streets again at the weekend and next week.

Labour blitz in final week

Like the other candidates, Labour are putting a lot of effort into their campaign. Not only have they assembled a large group to go knocking on people’s doors, including at times local MP Helena Dollimore, but they have planned a final week blitz of 11 outings starting on 13 November to add to the eight already carried out.

In a statement issued on 13 October, Labour’s Amanda Pollard did not mention Reform. But after Electoral Calculus published its forecast showing Labour and Reform running neck-and-neck, the party’s Facebook page blared: “The only way to STOP REFORM winning is to vote for Labour’s excellent candidate Amanda Pollard. A vote for any other party is a vote for Reform.” By 15 November the post had attracted 411 comments, many more than the usual handful its posts get.

Reform in the Lib Dems’ sights

The Lib Dems’ Martin Griffiths also concentrates his fire on Reform. “As a Liberal Democrat I am clear,” he writes in his leaflet, “I do not want Farage or his party to get a foothold on East Sussex County Council.” Many people have told him they would be voting for either him or Reform, he adds.

“We have now seen the utter chaos that Reform bring to local government. Over the border, in Kent County Council, Reform have been in charge since May. In just six months, they have created a legacy of disgraced councillors, broken promises and divided communities.

“…I am the best placed candidate to stop Reform at this election.”

Greens plan final burst

The Greens also have Reform in their sights. Their candidate Paula Warne has been supported by Rachel Millward, the party’s Sussex mayoral candidate and a deputy leader of the national party, and colleagues from the Lewes and Rother branches who gave a helping hand last weekend. Now they are gearing up for a final burst this weekend: “We need all hands on deck to make the Green difference and beat Reform,” they write (in caps).

Warne can also claim the endorsement of Stop the Tories, which claims to be independent of any political party and offers advice on tactical voting to keep the Right, whether Conservative or Reform, out. It acknowledges that in the 2024 borough elections the Tories won over Labour in both Ashdown and Conquest, but reasons that: “Labour could not win this division or its constituent wards when Labour was riding high [on] the way to winning the Parliamentary seat here and the best placed progressive party – based on the evidence of the intensity of this campaign – is the Greens who have a big activist base in Hastings.”

Against irresponsible governance

In a statement to HOT the Conservative’s Caroline Kerswell, by training a solicitor, does not actually mention Reform though she says she “can’t stand by while East Sussex risks falling under irresponsible governance…

“As a local resident, I face the same frustrations you do — sitting in traffic, dealing with endless roadworks, and seeing the effects of poor resource management. I share your concerns about overdevelopment and rising crime. I want our community to be safer, stronger, and better managed.”

She is, she says, the only candidate with a real plan to fix our roads, fight for fair council tax and local services, protect our green spaces and stop overdevelopment on The Ridge. While out canvassing she has enjoyed the support of Police and Crime Commissioner Katy Bourne, the Tory candidate for Sussex mayor, and on 17 November will be joined by MP Mims Davies, shadow minister for Women and shadow secretary of state for Wales.

 

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