Are living standards in Hastings & Rye in decline?

As the rising cost of living bites ever harder, James Prentice of Capture Politics takes a look at the long-term trends in metrics which reflect our standard of living and the quality of public services.

Many have argued that a worrying long-term trend is emerging in the Hastings & Rye constituency where public services and living standards appear to be in decline. To test if this sentiment is accurate, Capture Politics has investigated key indicators of living standards and the quality of local services. We find that in recent years many key indicators are showing a noticeable steady decline in living standards and service performance.

Living standards and the cost of living

Firstly, if we look at living standards it can be argued that people have seen them decline. The easiest measure to assess this is to estimate the cost of living defined as the average yearly percentage increase in residents’ wages compared to the level of inflation.

From 2010 to 2020 wages in the constituency are estimated to only have increased by £2,100, bringing the average wage to just above £22,000. This represents on average a 1.4% wage increase per year. However, across the last decade inflation has averaged 3.1%. This means that in real terms the average year in this period brought a 1.7% decrease in people’s wages. Figure 1 shows that in real terms only two of the last 10 years brought an increase in people’s income.

Importantly, with higher inflation this year, this trend looks unlikely to change any time soon. Therefore, it is fair to say that there has been a downward trend in Hastings & Rye’s living standards, meaning that in terms of income living standards are lower.

Growing levels of poverty

According to the indices of multiple deprivation (a system of assessing how poor or affluent an area is), Hastings has become slightly more deprived than it was a decade ago – in relative terms it is now ranked the 15^th most deprived area in England. The effect of this deprivation has hit children particularly badly, with primary school quality, primary school attainment, secondary school quality, secondary school attainment and A-Level results all appearing to have fallen, thus worstening Hastings’  deprivation level relative to other constituencies.

In turn this means that social mobility levels have worsened in the last decade. Further, Figure 2 shows that relative child poverty rates in Hastings & Rye have increased since 2015, again indicating a slow year-on-year decline in the standard of living for many as an increase in child poverty means fewer parents have enough to live on. Moreover, average earnings and the amount paid by way of the living wage are low and predicted to remain low in the near future, also contributing to an increase in poverty levels in recent times.

Worryingly, 75% of children in poverty are in households that work, so if wages will not be increasing in real terms in the foreseeable due to increasing inflation, this trend is unlikely to improve any time soon.

Housing costs

According to the multiple indices of deprivation, another key cause behind Hastings & Rye’s poverty levels is the rapid rise in housing costs and the lack of housing that can be designated as “affordable”. This problem has always existed in poor constituencies like Hastings & Rye, but has intensified in recent years.

Figure 3 demonstrates that house prices in the constituency have risen rapidly within the last decade, but wages have not risen anywhere near as much. Although house prices started at a much more affordable base in 2010, house price growth has clearly outstripped wage growth to such an extent that house prices are now unaffordable in relation to  the average annual wage levels in Hastings & Rye for the first time since records began.

To make matters worse, the number of new homes being built in the area per year has gone down from 182 in 2015 to 76 in 2021, meaning housing affordability is likely to continue to be tough as demand continues to outstrip supply. Therefore this means that even those on average incomes are seeing their living standards squeezed due to housing market trends, especially for younger people trying to get their first home. This again reflects a gradual year-on-year downward trend in people’s living standards.

The tax burden

Another way to assess the extent to which people are able to enjoy their income is to understand the average tax burden. The higher the tax burden, the greater proportion of people’s income is going to the government and the further this income is stretched across services. Figure 4 shows that the average tax burden has increased within the Hastings & Rye area.

As council tax has increased over the last decade and other in-work taxes have increased, this means that the tax burden is not increasing only because of higher taxes on richer people, it is mainly increasing as residents with average income and wealth levels are paying more. This means that residents are paying more in tax and this revenue must go further to support more services, meaning that taxpayers are probably going to be getting less value for money as services must be funded by more stretched resources.

Local services

For example, we can see this occurring in local government. Figure 5 shows that Hastings Borough Council has received less money from national government sources as the last decade progressed. Yet, the tax pressure on taxpayers within this area has increased, effectively meaning residents are paying more but getting less, at least in terms of resources, for local services.

Council services have been stretched as there is limited staff to cover the increasing demand for services. Further, with many council budgets at breaking point, many councils across the country are now looking to make severe savings in order to balance the books. With possible rises in council tax needed to pay for any savings that can’t be made from cuts, this trend of paying more for fewer stretched services looks likely to continue.

Therefore, the early indication is that services should be more stretched and are probably in decline, but is this the case?

NHS services

A & E services: Firstly, in terms of services, let us look at the NHS. Accident and Emergency (A & E) waiting times are often used as a barometer for how well the NHS is functioning. Usually, when the healthcare system has problems this is reflected by growing A & E waiting times, as when hospitals are stretched they are unable to deal with non-urgent A & E cases.

The standard acknowledged as the sign of a healthy A & E department is 95% of cases being seen within four hours. Figure 6 shows that within East Sussex this standard has not been met since May 2015, and within the last year waiting time targets being met fell to their lowest levels since the data source provided by the South East NHS trust began in 2010. This highlights how hospital services within the East Sussex trusts are under severe strain, likely causing local NHS service standards to decrease.

Ambulance services: Moving on to another key service, ambulance services, there are again signs of a service under intense stress. Firstly, Figure 7 outlines how since 2017 non-urgent patients, known as category 4, within East Sussex are having to wait considerably longer for an ambulance, times having increased by three hours on average.

As these are non-urgent cases, this may not seem like a disaster, but often these cases can be categorised as people who, while they do not have life-threatening problems, still need urgent care. This is why stories about elderly people who have fallen over and have to wait for hours for an ambulance are increasingly emerging.

Further, even when these ambulances get to A & E, they often have to queue and, as we showed earlier, these people are having to wait increasingly longer to get through A & E. As a result, within the South East people are increasingly having severe delays in accessing these emergency services, again indicating that there has been a continuous decline in the performance of key public services in recent years.

Interestingly, this trend has not been limited to non-urgent cases but has also materialised in urgent cases as well. Figure 8 shows that for category 1 and 2 patients – the most urgent cases, often covering emergencies like heart attacks and strokes – there has been a steady increase in waiting times within Hastings & Rye within the last year. As these urgent cases need immediate care, an increase in these waiting times can be detrimental to patient outcomes. This again is a sign that the quality of local services has been deteriorating in recent years.

Education: Education services are seeing a similar decline in funding and performance. Firstly, within the South East childcare places are harder to come by, with 6% fewer families securing a childcare placement for their child than the national average, in total leaving 16% without childcare coverage.

Focusing on per pupil funding, there has been stagnation or decline in all schools within the Hastings & Rye constituency. Primary schools have seen the biggest decline, with many schools receiving over £200 less per pupil compared to what they received in 2015, as shown in Figure 9. On average, schools have seen a funding decrease of £214 per pupil, meaning that fewer resources must be stretched to fund local students’ education, probably resulting in a worse service and outcome for local children.

This possibility is borne out in examination results, with both key stage 4 results stagnating in recent years after improvements had been made, see Figure 10. This would indicate that stagnating and declining levels of per pupil funding may have limited positive outcomes for pupils in the Hastings & Rye area, again indicating a lowering of standards in public service outcomes.

Crime

Finally, crime is another key indicator of the standard of living. The multiple indices of deprivation indicate that crime has gotten worse in recent years within Hastings, a finding confirmed by local crime statistics. For example, from 2011 to 2019 the crime rate increased from 59.1 to 74.8 crimes per 1,000 people. Worryingly, as seen in Figure 11, this has been partly driven by a large increase in violent crime. This again indicates a decline in living standards and how public services are struggling to deal with this growing problem.

Further, another worrying sign is the declining trend in the amount of public money provided to people to help them to access services at a time when these are worsening, in this case being able to access legal aid whilst crime rates are rising.

Figure 12 shows how since 2012 there has been a steady decline in the amount of legal aid funding available within the Hastings area. There have moreover been cuts to courts and barrister services in this sector. Given that crime rates are increasing, this means there is an increased need for help with legal cases. This surely again represents a trend where in recent years the standard of public services and the quality of living have been experiencing a declining trend.

The conclusion is that we are experiencing a general decline in living standards.

Overall, there appears to be a downward effect on living standards and service performance in Hastings & Rye. There has been a gradual decline in living standards due to the gradual rise in the cost of living within the constituency in the last decade. Additionally, according to key metrics in key service areas, there also appears to be a worsening of public services, at least in terms of the number of positive outcomes residents can expect.

Consequently, if the government’s economic strategy generates growth and increases government revenue, then this trend could be reversed. However, if this strategy fails to deliver, these negative trends likely will continue as services will have fewer resources, meaning they will continue to be stretched.

 

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