Mayoral poll heads shift in electoral landscape

The government’s devolution policy has changed the electoral landscape, replacing this year’s county council elections in six areas, including East Sussex, with a poll for mayors. Elections for shadow unitary authorities are also scheduled as local government undergoes a radical upheaval. How are these new elections shaping up in Sussex? Text by Nick Terdre, research and graphics by Russell Hall.

The last county council elections have been held in East and West Sussex and the other five areas selected by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government to join the Devolution Priority Programme.

In February the government cancelled the elections due to be held in May to refresh East Sussex councillors, thus maintaining the minority Conservative administration in power, much to the chagrin of the opposition parties. Instead the next local election will be in May 2026 to choose who will be the first mayor, with a four-year term, of the proposed Sussex and Brighton mayoral combined county authority.

Two would-be candidates have declared themselves so far, both for the Conservative party: Sally-Ann Hart, the MP for Hastings & Rye from 2019 to 2024 (see her electoral website),  and Katy Bourne, the East Sussex Police and Crime Commissioner from 2012 when the post was created until the present day.

Labour’s Brighton & Hove City Council leader Bella Sankey didn’t sound very enthusiastic when asked if she might be standing, responding, “That’s not something that I’m currently considering”.

This is set to be a first-past-the-post (FPTP) election, though Rother District Council is attempting to put a spanner in the works by passing a motion in late February urging the minister to scrap FTFP for this election and instead use “a system which ensures the winning candidate has the support of at least 51% of the electorate.”

Changing electoral landscape

The contest for Sussex’s first mayor will take place amid a changing electoral landscape. Last year’s general election saw a fairly equitable division of the 17 Sussex seats between Labour, with six, and the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats with five each, along with one for the Green Party.

Since then the Tories have recovered some of their traditional dominance in Sussex, and judging by current voting intentions, are leading the race. According to calculations based on the latest Electoral Calculus poll of Westminster voting intentions, with fieldwork carried out on 19-24 February, support for the Conservatives across Sussex was running at an estimated 24.7%, followed by 22.5% for Labour, 21.4% Reform UK, 18.4% the Liberal Democrats and 11% the Green party.

But Reform are closing the gap. While the Tory share was down by 2.8% and Labour's by 3.5% since last July’s election, Reform’s share had advanced strongly by 9%.

And Reform’s rise on Sussex pastures appears not to be exhausted yet. Against a backdrop of four Tory councillors in West Sussex County Council defecting to Reform, several Sussex constituencies are currently considered marginals. In Bognor Regis the party already commands 30% plus of voting intentions, and 25-30% across swathes of East Sussex, from Eastbourne and Bexhill in the south, up through Battle, Hailsham and Heathfield to Crowborough in the north.

Whether the latest row over MP Rupert Lowe will dent voters’ enthusiasm for Reform remains to be seen.

Nationally Labour has regained the lead from Reform in the race to form the next government, with a 26% vote share against 25% for Reform and 21% for the Conservatives, possibly reflecting approval for the way prime minister Keir Starmer has handled relations with the unpredictable US president Donald Trump.

However, voting intentions are currently quite volatile, so much could change between now and May next year.

Sole elected representative

The Sussex mayor will be the sole elected representative on the new strategic authority’s main decision-making body, on which s/he will be joined by two representatives appointed by each of the three constituent unitary authorities: East Sussex, West Sussex and Brighton & Hove.

The lower-tier councils may be allowed to appoint representatives to sit on this body, though they will not have voting powers unless, again, the unitary authority representatives decide they should.

But citizens will have another chance to cast their votes in May 2027 in elections for shadow unitary authorities. Not a lot is yet known about this election, such as how many seats will be contested, and for which areas, or in what form - FPTP or some form of PR.

According to ESCC, there should be one councillor to represent every 4,000-5,000 - let’s say 4,500 - of the electorate. As the East Sussex electorate is just under 420,000, that would give 93 councillors. That’s a lot more than the 50 county councillors, but a lot less than the 183 councillors on the district and borough councils.

An insight into government thinking in this area is given in the devolution white paper, which notes approvingly: “In Cumbria, unitarisation reduced the number of councillors by two thirds and replaced seven council leaders with two; these simpler structures reduce the considerable demands on all involved, and mean the area now only needs two local elections every four years.”

The white paper also refers approvingly to "fewer politicians" in several places. So a reduction in the number of councillors appears to be a favoured aim.

Once elected, these representatives will have to twiddle their thumbs for a while as the unitary authorities will only come into operation in April 2028, when the lower-tier district and borough councils are abolished.

Borough elections?

So what of the borough elections due in 2026? Hastings is due to re-elect half of its 32 councillors. Will they also be cancelled? When asked last month, HBC leader Cllr Julia Hilton said, “There is currently no indication of whether the local borough elections due to take place in May 2026 will go ahead or not.”

If they go ahead, the elected councillors will only have a two-year term of office. On the other hand, if cancelled, the councillors elected in 2022 will presumably remain in office for two extra years after their term expires - just as ESCC councillors elected in 2021 are being maintained for three extra years.

Meanwhile councils are responding to the devolution consultation. ESCC is to seek its Full Council views on its proposal to either agree or strongly agree with each of the government’s suggestions that this or that aspect of devolution is likely to be beneficial, which is also the opinion to be put to the Brighton & Hove Cabinet.

Somewhat differing views may emerge from the deliberations of the lower-tier councils, including Hastings. Meanwhile all the East Sussex councils are soon due to discuss their initial ideas on how local government should be reorganised. In Hastings this will happen at a Full Council meeting on Wednesday 19 March, when three options will be debated, as well as councillors' response to the devolution consultation.

 

This article was amended by Nick Terdre on 15 March 2025 to correct estimated voting shares for the political parties in Sussex.

Also in: Local Government

« ESCC elections: what might have been
Devolution: your chance to comment »