ESCC elections: what might have been

Opposition parties were dismayed when the East Sussex County Council elections scheduled for May were cancelled, having held high hopes of removing the Conservatives from power. A poll now suggests that the Tories were indeed heading for a disastrous result, but with Reform UK also set to benefit. Text by Nick Terdre, research and graphics by Russell Hall.

Late last year, when May’s local elections were still on the schedule, the Conservative administration running East Sussex County Council was already in a minority – with 23 seats out of 50 it relied on the backing of two friendly independents to stay in power. After the drubbing inflicted on the Tories in last year’s general election, it looked certain to suffer further losses, allowing opposition parties to take control of the county council.

Then the Labour government rode to its rescue, offering postponement – in effect cancellation – of May’s election in exchange for supporting its devolution plans, an opportunity which was gratefully seized.

Electoral Calculus has now published the results of modelling of voting intentions from polling data ahead of the local elections, which have only been cancelled in the six areas taken on to the Devolution Priority Programme and will still take place over much of England. This was modelling using the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) technique which allows an estimated result to be given for each local authority. Fieldwork was carried out from 1 to 10 March with a sample of more than 5,400 respondents.

The results show that expectations of widespread Tory losses in East Sussex were realistic, but not only to the benefit of opposition parties to their left. The Liberal Democrats enjoyed the greatest support, 25.1%, followed by Reform UK with 21.6% and the Conservatives with 20.4%. Labour’s share was 12.9% and the Green Party’s 10.2%.

In terms of seats the Lib Dems would have won an estimated 19, up seven from its current standing, and Reform, which currently has none, nine. The other parties would have lost ground, with the Tories down 14 to nine, Labour down one to four, and the Greens down two to three. The Independent Democrats would have held steady at two, and the number of seats held by unattached independents would have risen from two to three.

Losing trust

So power could have been taken by a progressive alliance led by the Lib Dems. “The recent opinion poll shows that the Conservatives have lost the trust of East Sussex residents,” Martin Griffiths, the chair of Hastings & Rye Liberal Democrats, told HOT.

“This is no surprise to us. We hear it on the doorstep, and we see day in, day out in their lack of care for our communities, with the deterioration of the basic infrastructure needs of a modern, civilised society. Residents are dismayed that the current minority Tory administration has clung on to power by requesting that the County Council elections due this May were cancelled.

“Electors are also losing faith in the new Labour government. They see the LibDems as the effective opposition in Westminster as well as being the party that stands up for local communities. This trust has been demonstrated by the number of local council elections the LibDems have won across the country in the last two years.”

Disappointed

Meanwhile Green Party county councillor Johnny Denis told HOT he was: “Very disappointed that the Conservative administration continues for three years without a mandate or even a majority.”

But he added that “MRP is notoriously poor at predicting local election results and is best ignored. It has better results with national elections.

“Had the elections gone ahead we would have expected to increase our number of councillors to 12-14, the Tories to lose their base and for the administration to have been a LibDem led council with Green and possibly Labour support.”

Martin Baxter, Electoral Calculus CEO, told HOT: “It’s true that local elections are more challenging to predict than general elections. Turnout is lower at local elections, and there are also independents and candidates from smaller parties who can be popular locally. So it’s hard to predict every ward correctly.

“But we think that the overall trends are measurable. Our poll suggests that the Conservatives will lose support compared with 2021, and that Reform and the Liberal Democrats will gain. Of course, the final decision rests with the voters, so we will see how accurate our overall predictions were [in the areas with elections] once the votes are counted.”

Reform stronghold

In Hastings the poll suggests a drastic upheaval of the electoral landscape, turning the town into a Reform stronghold. The populist right-wing party would have taken five of the eight county council seats, including gains from the Conservatives in Ashdown & Conquest, Baird & Ore, Maze Hill & West St Leonards and St Helens  Silverhill, and from Labour in Hollington & Wishing Tree. Labour would have held Braybrooke & Castle and Central St Leonards & Gensing, and the Greens Old Hastings & Tressell.

Meanwhile the results in West Sussex point to the Conservatives holding on to the the largest voting share, with 23.8%, closely followed by Reform with 23.1% and the LibDems with 22.1%. In terms of seats, however, the LibDems looked set to come out on top, advancing to 21 from nine, with Reform, which recently took on board four Tory defectors, advancing to 20, and the Tories slumping from 42 to 18.

Would the Conservatives and Reform, neither of which has a kind word to say about the other, have contemplated working together to keep the opposition to the left out of power? We shall never know.

For Sussex as a whole – relevant to next year’s mayoral election though Brighton & Hove was excluded from this poll – the LibDems led the vote share, with 23.3%, followed by the Conservatives and Reform both on 22.5%, Labour on 14.8% and the Greens on 8.8%.

So what does the poll suggest about the outcome of this May’s local elections where they are held? Bear in mind that last time around, in 2021, the Conservatives enjoyed a bounce on the back of the successful roll-out of the Covid vaccines.

They still appear to enjoy a marginal lead, with 26% yielding 548 seats against Reform’s 25% (474 seats). Labour’s general election tsunami appears to have washed itself out, leaving them in third place, with 20% (252), followed by the Lib Dems, 16% (270) and Greens, 6% (27).

In the 23 councils involved, the Tories look set to control, or be the largest party, in 10, Reform in eight and the LibDems in five. In a few weeks we shall see – and HOT will check the outcome against the poll predictions.

 

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