Coronavirus statistical update: Hastings – Covid coldspot

Ever since HOT’s statistical reports on the coronavirus began, it has been clear that Hastings has been relatively little affected, both in number of cases and deaths. There is no explanation for this remarkable fact yet, though investigations are under way. Research and graphics by Russell Hall, text by Nick Terdre.

Although Hastings does not have a large BAME (Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic)  population, it ranks high both in deprivation and the size of its elderly population, both factors associated with higher levels of incidence of Covid-19. Yet the town stands out from other local authorities in East Sussex and elsewhere in the country because of the low incidence of both C-19 cases and deaths.

The phenomenon is evident in the rolling seven-day average of confirmed cases of coronavirus in East Sussex local authorities as plotted using Public Health England (PHE) data in the interactive graph below.

Hastings’ exceptionalism is noted in the Covid-19 outbreak control plan published by East Sussex County Council at the end of June, which states:

“Hastings is worthy of particular attention as it is currently ranked 314 lowest out of 316 Lower Tier Local Authorities from Pillar 1 testing. This is particularly striking in the context of Hastings being linked to Ashford in Kent which has had a much higher rate of pillar 1 cases, as well as Hastings having high levels of deprivation – a factor usually associated with poorer health. More work is needed to understand this variation and the underlying protective characteristics, as well as the need for a more complete picture of all confirmed COVID-19 cases.”

The plan notes that work is under way with the University of Sussex to “understand whether there are particular protective factors at play in Hastings, and also to explore whether these same factors may hamper or support the area through reset and recovery.”

When the plan was drawn up, it is evident that ESCC and its partners did not have access to full data, as is indicated by its reference to Pillar 1 testing (of NHS and other healthcare workers). As noted in our previous statistical update, this lack made a huge difference in some places, notably Leicester, where the eventual publication of Pillar 2 testing results (on care home staff and residents and members of the community displaying symptoms) revealed a massive increase in cases.

In contrast, for Hastings and in East Sussex generally the addition of Pillar 2 results indicated a greater incidence but the same general profile, with Hastings by some way the least affected of the East Sussex districts and boroughs. The interactive graph above shows roughly double the incidence since late May in Hastings following the addition of Pillar 2 cases.

The latest PHE figures for confirmed cases, showing Pillars 1 and 2 combined for East Sussex local authorities up to 13 July, are as follows. Rother has also had relatively few cases compared with Eastbourne, Lewes and Wealden.

Confirmed cases

Hastings 128
Rother 185
Eastbourne 408
Lewes 368
Wealden 449
East Sussex 1,538

Deaths

Hastings 10
Rother 54
Eastbourne 68
Lewes 113
Wealden 113
East Sussex 358

These are the figures released on 14 July by the Office for National Statistics on deaths occurring up to 3 July and registered up to 11 July. There was one new death registered for Hastings, bringing the total to 10. Of these, eight occurred in hospital, one in a care home and one in a hospice.

Although in the early stages of response to the pandemic, care homes were put at risk by the authorities’ insistence that elderly patients should be dispatched to them from hospital without testing whether they had the coronavirus, Hastings has also escaped lightly, not only in the number of fatalities but also the number of outbreaks.

PHE statistics show that from early March up to 5 July, there were eight confirmed or suspected outbreaks of the virus in the town’s 66 care homes (only the first outbreak is included in these statistics, so the actual number may be higher). In other words 12% of care homes suffered an outbreak.

Rother recorded 18 outbreaks in 73 homes (25%), Eastbourne 29 in 66 (44%), Lewes 19 in 43 (44%) and Wealden 32 in 65 (49%). For East Sussex as a whole there were 106 outbreaks in 313 care homes (34%).

While unable to supply exact figures, a spokesperson for East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust told HOT today that there are only around 20 coronavirus patients in the region’s hospitals, and either one or none in critical care.

Hastings and Eastbourne are also among the top ten most active towns in England for volunteer activity under the aegis of NHS Volunteer Responders, delivering food and medicines to those unable to go out, providing transport to GP and hospital appointments, keeping in touch through ‘check-in and chat’ phone calls, and so on. According to NHS England, Hastings is in third place, with 37.8 tasks undertaken per 1,000 population and Eastbourne in sixth, with 29.1.

 

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