Coronavirus statistical update: a better estimate of deaths made available by ONS
As the coronavirus works its way towards peak effect, HOT is providing a regular (no longer daily) update of the statistics for our region and the country provided by the public health authorities and other official sources. Fuller information on deaths has been made available by the Office of National Statistics, including a figure for those occurring in care homes. Text and charts by Russell Hall.
There were 373 confirmed Covid-19 cases as of 15 April in East Sussex, an increase of eight on the previous day, and 38 Covid-19 deaths recorded in the region to 14 April, with one new death recorded on 14 April. Only 57 new cases have been recorded in the last six days, compared with 81 in the six days to 1 April. So the curve of increases appears to be flattening out.
Local area Covid-19 statistics
The number of people in hospital beds in the South East region who are confirmed or suspected of having Covid-19 stood at 2,020 yesterday, a drop of 29 on the previous day. This number is within 100 of 2,000 for the eighth day running, indicating that it may be plateauing.
UK Covid-19 confirmed cases and recorded hospital deaths
As of 9am on 15 April, 398,916 tests had been concluded, with 15,994 tests carried out on 14 April.
Altogether 313,769 people have been tested, of whom 98,476 (31.4%) tested positive.
As of 5pm on 14 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 12,868 have died, equivalent to 13.1% of those testing positive.
Some individuals are tested more than once for clinical reasons. The figure for the number of tests excludes data from Northern Ireland. The daily totals reflect actual figures reported today.
Differences in number of deaths
The number of deaths due to Covid-19 reported each day by Public Health England and NHS England linclude only those that occurred in hospitals. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has gathered statistics for all Covid-19 deaths for the year to 3 April and analysed in which settings they took place. The above chart shows the result of the ONS analysis for all Covid-19 deaths in England and Wales which occurred so far this year up to 3 April and includes all Covid-19 deaths registered to 11 April.
The ONS found 90.2% of deaths in England and Wales occurred in hospitals, 5.3% in care homes, and 3.3% at home. The ONS also found that Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate of 21% of all deaths registered.
On average deaths are registered five days after they occur as they need to be certified by a doctor and then registered by a family member or someone who knew the deceased.
Comparing its death statistics with those published daily by Public Health England and NHS England, the ONS found that Public Health England under-reported the number by 50% and NHS England by 15%. At its daily press conference today the government quoted the deaths reported by Public Health England. The figures for the deaths in East Sussex quoted above are from NHS England – the ONS does not provide a regional breakdown.
Caveats
A number of caveats need to be borne in mind regarding the statistics:
- Cumulative case numbers include people who have recovered.
- With respect to testing, cases are reported when lab tests are completed, which may be a few days after initial testing.
- Testing capacity is increasing, resulting in a greater number of observed cases.
- Testing capacity constraints mean there are likely many more cases than currently recorded here.
- Deathsrecorded by Public Health England include only those in hospital and exclude those in the community and care homes.
- There is a delay in many deaths being recorded from a few days to up to two weeks.
- Deaths tend to be recorded around three weeks after first symptoms in fatal cases.
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