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YouGov MRP Hastings and Rye 350Poll points to narrow win for Tories in Hastings & Rye

The Conservatives are heading for a narrow victory over Labour in Hastings & Rye according to the latest YouGov poll, while the Liberal Democrats look to be suffering a serious squeeze. Nick Terdre reports.

The latest YouGov poll, taken on 10 December, suggests a narrow – or ‘lean’ – victory for the Tories’ Sally-Ann Hart over Labour’s Peter Chowney, with Hart polling 47% against Chowney’s 44%.

However, the range of uncertainty for each candidate – 40-55% for Hart against 36-51% for Chowney, means an upset is by no means impossible.

However, the Liberal Democrats’ Nick Perry looks set to suffer as anti Tory and Remain voters go tactical – the Lib Dems are forecast a mere 7%, with a range of uncertainty of 3-12%.

For the UK as a whole YouGov predicts 43% for the Tories, which translates into 339 seats and an outright win, against 34% for Labour, equivalent to 231 seats (ah, the wonders of the first-past-the-post system!).

At the national level the Brexit Party looks like they are being squeezed right out, with 3% of the vote and no seats, while the Lib Dems are forecast 12% and 15 seats and the SNP 3% and 41 seats.

Can Labour look to first-time voters to spring a surprise? That is unlikely, according to politics.co.uk, which reports that the surge of newly registered voters is not concentrated in the northern and Midlands marginals which Labour is fighting to hold, but in metropolitan and student-heavy seats which the party already mostly holds.

Role of social media

What role has social media played in the election debate? When the BBC came to Hastings to investigate for a report broadcast on national news at the weekend, one of their interviewees was local resident Russell Hall, who said he had observed that Facebook was being widely used to propagate misinformation.

“Since the general election was called there has been an increase in activity in local Facebook groups by an order of magnitude,” Hall, who has a keen interest in local psephological matters, told HOT.

“Discussion of local issues has entirely given way to a slugfest of exchanging party political brickbats, but the discourse has remained mostly civil. This differs from the 2017 general election, which was largely characterised by trolling and ad hominem attacks.

“Discussion of policy has been almost entirely absent from the debate, with far more sophisticated party operations than in 2017 seemingly aimed at discrediting the other parties and candidates rather than considering the merits of the manifesto offerings.

“Voters have been subjected to a deluge of memes that has served to stifle debate instead of encouraging engagement, which must leave non-partisan voters bewildered.”

Heading for high turnout

Given the fiercely contested nature of the election, turnout in the constituency is likely to be high. According to official sources, Hall says, it reached 69.9% in 2017 – which seems to rebut the popularly held view that people don’t like elections. In fact, in Hastings and Rye, turnout has risen every year since 2001.

The electorate count is always made at the beginning of December, and this year’s figures show that a record electorate has been registered in Hastings and Rye for Thursday’s election, says Hall – 80,524, according to the council’s electoral services manager.

That is a rise of just over 10,000 in the 36 years since 1983.

Hastings and Rye Electorate Chart 2 600

 

Posted 17:49 Wednesday, Dec 11, 2019 In: Election 2019

15 Comments

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  1. Francis Sheppard

    The reports continually coming out of Hastings were of a ruling council only focusing on its own agenda closing down important public debate ejecting party members who raised relevant concerns but blind sided.them. A similar scenario has been reflected across the country. The inability of the Labour Party leaders to conduct a proper discussion and assessment of the 2016 vote and not to then put a cogent presentation of both sides of the issue was negligent and disrespectful to its members and supporters. The fact that a hurried and late presented Manifesto indicated an organisation not knowing what it’s left or right hand was doing was another example of a dysfunctional body riddled with an internal civil war that on both sides showed to the electorate that they were about self preservation. Labours only chance of leading the country again depends on the conservatives failing on Brexit and on its promises to the people something that time will only tell. The real danger is that there is now effective opposition and there is five years to get it right or the alternative is a total disintegration of four countries.

    Comment by Francis Sheppard — Monday, Dec 16, 2019 @ 08:34

  2. Ms.Doubtfire

    Poetic justice indeed….perhaps this will be a wake up calle for this Labour council…stop treating residents as fools….

    Comment by Ms.Doubtfire — Friday, Dec 13, 2019 @ 15:31

  3. Bolshie

    Well this result has made my day and far better than the prediction in this article, a real surprise there.
    Not only does this display how Labour policies, hype and some ridiculous edicts of what they would do if in power was realised by the local electorate. But also given this big majority also say what they thought of the person standing as the Labour candidate.
    When I think of the issue about this local party making claims in their manifesto of something they never ever “Achieved,” yet refuse to admit it is a fallacy, this result has to be poetic justice for me.
    Oh Ms Kramer you must be pretty unhappy today.

    Comment by Bolshie — Friday, Dec 13, 2019 @ 12:22

  4. David Stevenson

    Oh dear such anger. Which is all very depressing since it shows how some people have let themselves be dragged down to the level of politicians. As someone who has lived through Labour governments, Conservative governments, Lab -Lib pacts, Con / Lib coalitions, Con with DUP support, I remind everyone that the manifestos are not worth the paper on which they are printed. Governments just make it up as they go along. Whoever gets elected in Hastings tonight (realistically either Mr Chowney or Ms Hart) they will just be a puppet of their party. They will do what they are told, whilst massaging their own ego and pocketing the equivalent of about three or four times the local average income plus unlimited “expenses”. As I said previously on here, choosing between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn is like selecting one of the Kray twins. Politicians are crooks in suits.

    Comment by David Stevenson — Thursday, Dec 12, 2019 @ 20:02

  5. Ms.Doubtfire

    Oh yes! And I forgot to mention the millions of pounds irresponsibly borrowed by this council in order to purchase doubtful retail outlets…much of which we know nothing about …the day of reckoning will surely come and then perhaps the naysayers will realise the seriousness of all this activity behind closed doors…ultimately poor old Hastings will pay the price for this spending spree.

    Comment by Ms.Doubtfire — Thursday, Dec 12, 2019 @ 16:30

  6. Bolshie

    Here is a message aimed at Ms Kramer here. Obviously you are a staunch Comrade Corbyn and Chowney follower. Fair enough that is your prerogative. However, I do support what Mrs Doubtfire has said about the Labour party. I think it has all be pretty accurate from my view.
    As for you wonderful party, I personally am not at all happy about a fallacy claiming to have “Achieved” something on page 7 of your local manifesto. I see there has been six letters in the local paper about this claim that is false. And as I understand it since June of 2017 when this appeared your lovely party has chosen to ignore and refuse to comment on why they have made a claim of achievement they never achieved. May I add there are boxes of evidence to prove it too. How many other false claims are there in that manifesto? You only need one to ask yourself what is this party up to here.
    While commenting about Labour as a member of the Jewish fraternity don’t even go there when you defend your party on the issue of “sustained attacks.” You support a party that has been doing just that for a long while and obviously your local hero Cllr Chowney cannot be that concerned about it. Never heard a word from him about that issue, so either he supports what your party does or he has turned a blind eye to it.

    Comment by Bolshie — Thursday, Dec 12, 2019 @ 15:43

  7. Christopher Cormack

    May I remind Jill Fricker that death is not avoidable for any of us, including you and me! So why are you astonished? Do the NHS compile figures for ‘avoidable deaths’? If not, has this figure been plucked out of thin air, as I suspect? It doesn’t even refer to what respective period. I would also like to leave you with two thoughts: I suspect that many Chartists and Suffragettes would not choose to vote for Corbyn style labour and many of us choose to vote the opposite of those who urge us in their direction.

    Comment by Christopher Cormack — Thursday, Dec 12, 2019 @ 10:50

  8. Didireallysaythat

    One thing I have noticed when watching election debating, this time round, is how Johnso doesnt give any details of his pilicies just ,”We have a BRILLIANT package. An EXCITING package!” Etc,etc…. Whereas Corbyn does say what they are doing and how they are paying for it. It seems extremely one sided to say about how much bickering instead of policies is the norm, this time, from all sides when Corbyn never
    insults his opponent personally.

    Comment by Didireallysaythat — Thursday, Dec 12, 2019 @ 09:52

  9. Ms.Doubtfire

    Jay Kramer -your so called ‘nasty’ comments do not compare with some of the downright unpleasant insults hurled at the opposition by some of the Labour crew. I think if you read back on comments made about the leader of this council and his colleagues you will find residents are stating facts and concerns and not submitted by myself alone either. The question of the environment has been a particular thorn in the side of many here with so much development taking place without concern about the loss of so much which is important to our future….trees…wildlife..open spaces…..you really should look around Ms. Kramer and see what is happening to our town. Without due diligence Hastings will be unrecognisable in a few years time. If it is ‘nasty’ to raise these concerns…there are many guilty down here!

    Comment by Ms.Doubtfire — Thursday, Dec 12, 2019 @ 08:47

  10. kendal

    GET BORISXIT DONE

    Comment by kendal — Thursday, Dec 12, 2019 @ 08:42

  11. Jill Fricker

    Consider this from the NHS staff grassroots campaign,
    “There have been an astonishing 120,000 avoidable deaths as a direct result of Conservative austerity and neglect of our NHS.” @NHSMillion
    Then get your brollies out, remember what we all owe to the Chartists and Suffragettes and VOTE LABOUR!

    Comment by Jill Fricker — Wednesday, Dec 11, 2019 @ 23:08

  12. Jill Fricker

    Time for the remaining potential Lib Dem voters to switch and vote Labour so there’s a fighting chance of wrestling this seat from the Tories? Swallow your principles in order to stop a hard Brexit? When this is all over, I think we should once again push for Proportional Representation so EVERYONE’s vote counts, but for now, tactical voting could help secure a second referendum.

    Comment by Jill Fricker — Wednesday, Dec 11, 2019 @ 22:48

  13. J B KNIGHT

    YouGov is biased and leans towards Conservative anticipations.
    Hastings is Leave country.
    Many staying away for various reasons
    Most of Hastings candidates repulse or bore
    Yet to be anyone’s/

    We will know day after tomorrow.

    Unless van with postal votes lost again.

    Comment by J B KNIGHT — Wednesday, Dec 11, 2019 @ 22:44

  14. Ann Kramer

    Given the disgusting, sustained attacks on Labour over the last several weeks, to say nothing about the particularly nasty things “Mrs Doubtfire” has herself said about Peter Chowney, her comments are utterly hypocritical.

    Comment by Ann Kramer — Wednesday, Dec 11, 2019 @ 22:13

  15. Ms.Doubtfire

    It is disgraceful to know that some are discrediting others with the intention of gaining votes…this has put many off from voting at all.
    I feel the labour party in Hastings has really pulled out all the stops in order to try and secure a victory. It has not been a pretty sight.
    To add insult to injury Facebook has been used as a very nasty vehicle to denounce and insult …all those involved in these unaccetable acts should be ashamed of themselves.

    Comment by Ms.Doubtfire — Wednesday, Dec 11, 2019 @ 19:37

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