Reform and Labour neck-and-neck in by-election battle

The untimely death last month of Peter Pragnell, the Conservative county councillor for the Ashdown & Conquest division in Hastings, has resulted in a by-election to choose his replacement. In what until now has been a safe Tory seat, this provides an opportunity for Reform UK to test whether its lead in the polls translates into electoral success. Text by Nick Terdre, research and graphics by Russell Hall.

It seems there was little appetite at County Hall for a by-election to replace Cllr Peter Pragnell following his sudden death in early September. A Notice of Vacancy was posted, then withdrawn without explanation. The Notice of Election which it would normally lead on to failed to appear.

Not only did no voters or members of political parties request a by-election, but East Sussex County Council’s Tory Cabinet probably preferred not to have one – after all, they were happy to have this year’s county council elections postponed, and have requested that the same elections be postponed again next May.

This meant that the residents of Ashdown & Conquest would have had no representation at county level at least until next May, and quite likely beyond that to the shadow unitary elections in 2027.

Concerned with the disappearing ability of residents to regularly choose their local representatives, this writer and researcher exercised our rights as voters to request that the by-election be held – requests from only two are required – and this was granted. It is due to be held on Thursday 20 November.

Candidates selected

The political parties have moved fast to select their candidates. In the Conservatives’ case, this is Caroline Kerslake, a solicitor advocate and former barrister now resident in St Leonards. “Tired of politics as usual,” she says she is standing in the by-election “because I want to bring integrity, professionalism and problem-solving back into local government…

“We must get answers on the near decade-long delay to the Queensway Gateway caused by Sea Change Sussex, work with the new Mayor of Sussex (from 2026) to ensure Key Route Networks are in place to prioritise our busy roads and end the war on motorists, and stop Rayner’s housing plans to cover The Ridge in unwanted development and more traffic.”

The Greens’ choice is Paula Warne, the Hastings Borough councillor for Gensing ward and the council’s mental health champion. As a former ESCC highways inspector she says she is very aware of infrastructure needs: “Here in Ashdown & Conquest I see the need for the right infrastructure to support new housing development.

“I care deeply about our housing crisis, having experienced homelessness myself. We need homes, but they must be the right homes, in the right place, for the right price – and we must have the transport systems, schools, surgeries and shops for these new communities.”

Reform have selected Aidan Fisher, who has a background in the financial industry and is an officer in the Territorial Army. “I am particularly concerned to see ESCC predicting a £36.5m deficit in 2026/27 rising to £70.8m by 2028/29, something which will put increasing financial pressure on our community, at a time when many people are already struggling financially,” he says.

Referring to “some unpopular developments in and around the Ashdown & Conquest Ward,” he says he wants “to explore brownfield alternatives for new housing rather than lose playing fields such as the case with Harrow Lane.”

Labour’s candidate is Amanda Pollard and the Liberal Democrats’ Martin Griffiths. HOT understands that the Hastings Independents, who have decided to join Your Party, do not intend to contest the seat.

Tory stronghold

Ashdown & Conquest has traditionally been a Conservative stronghold, as was evidenced in the elections for Hastings Borough Council in 2024, when Tories Sorrell Marlow-Eastwood in Ashdown and Paul Foster in Conquest retained their seats with Labour some way behind in second. Reform stood a candidate only in Ashdown, where he polled only 9.5% of votes cast.

In three of the four county council elections since 2005, the Conservative vote exceeded that of all the other parties combined. Peter Pragnell held the seat from 2009 onwards. The one blip for the Tories was in 2013, when the UK Independence Party took 846 votes against the Tories 1,061, and won seven seats elsewhere in East Sussex.

That was the only time Ukip contested the seat, suggesting there is fertile ground for its successor party Reform, which also has reasons for optimism in its surge in the polls since last year’s general election.

Changes afoot

Yet recent modelling from large-scale polling data by Electoral Calculus paints a different picture, with Labour and Reform within striking distance of each other and the other parties losing vote share.

So there appears to be everything to play for between Labour and Reform, a situation which is likely to encourage tactical voting.

Electoral Calculus has incorporated tactical voting into its polling model. In Hastings & Rye it found that if a parliamentary election were held now just over half of Conservative voters would support Reform while most LibDem, Green and Your Party supporters would lend their vote to Labour. This would result in Labour taking 44.9% of votes against Reform’s 41.3%.

The forecast gives Labour a 52% chance of winning the constituency and Reform 46% on a 60.6% turnout.

Similar voting tactics could emerge in the Ashdown & Conquest by-election, where Electoral Calculus’s forecast is that both wards could be won by Labour.

Nationally, however, in seats where Reform and Labour are the frontrunners, and tactical voting is prompted, Electoral Calculus still sees Reform coming out on top if a general election were held today, as the above graphic shows.

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