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As the second national lockdown drew to an end, infection rates in Hastings and Rother turned sharply upwards.

Coronavirus statistical update: Tier 3 looms for Hastings and Rother as infection rates boom

A sharp rise in cases of Covid infection in Hastings and Rother could lead to these areas being subject to Tier 3 restrictions – the toughest in England – when the first review takes place on 16 December. Report and graphics by Russell Hall.

Since Friday it has been clear that coronavirus infection rates in Hastings and Rother have taken a turn for the worse. The rates have been shooting up, with the Hastings seven-day increase in confirmed cases per 100,000 population going up by 74% in the week to 3 December compared to the previous week (as reported to 5 December), going from 74.5 in the week to 26 November to 129.5 in the week to 3 December.

The reported case data to Friday 3 December is likely to be around 90% complete, with any change due to reporting lag only being upwards. From 30 November to 3 December Hastings cases averaged 25 a day, nearly treble the average for the previous seven days.

Hastings and Rother, along with Tunbridge Wells, are at risk of being switched from Tier 2 to Tier 3 when the first review of tier assignments takes place on 16 December.

With the review of tier allocations due to happen on 16 December, if local infection rates in Hastings and Rother continue to increase then it is a possibility that they could join Kent in Tier 3 from 19 December until 22 December and then from 28 December until at least 1 January, with any changes made in the following two-week tier review expected on 30 December coming into effect on 2 January.

When the new tiers were introduced on 2 December the tier assignment was done on 25 November using data up to 19 November and reported up to 25 November. If data up to six days before is again used when the tier allocations are reviewed on 16 December, East Sussex areas will be allocated tiers using data up to 10 December and reported to 16 December.

The government has said the next tier review on 16 December will take into account the views of local public health officials and might consider assigning tiers at LTLA level, although the 11 November SPI-M-O statement to SAGE based on modelling work was that UTLA level allocations reduce “edge effects” (i.e. people moving between tiers) that may make measures more effective.

St Leonards Academy closed to all year groups on Wednesday due to coronavirus infections. Cases by 5-year age band data by date reported (the latest detailed data) are consistent with the recent rise in Hastings cases being from secondary schools, such as the Hastings and St Leonards Academies if some staff were also infected.

Data for the week to 30 November show cases in West St Leonards account for 20% of the 69 confirmed Hastings cases that week with cases doubling. Cases by Hastings neighbourhood for the week to 30 November (percentage increase in cases from the previous week in brackets):

Ashdown: 6 (-40%)
Braybrooke & Bohemia: 3 (-50%)
Broomgrove: 7 (0%)
Central Hastings: 4 (0%)
Central St Leonards: 5 (-50%)
Conquest & St Helens: 3 (-75%)
Hollington: 7 (+40%%)
Old Hastings: 5 (-54.5%)
Ore: 11 (-8.3%)
Silverhill: 4 (+33.3%)
West St Leonards: 14 (+100%)

On Tuesday 7 December the ESCC Health and Wellbeing Board will meet, with a revised East Sussex Outbreak Control Plan on the agenda that heralds the involvement of East Sussex borough and district council environmental health officers in outbreak control; Darrell Gale may give an interim report on the University of Sussex research into why the Hastings Covid-19 infection rate was so low until late September.

On 26 November Sussex local support for Test & Trace was launched, working from the West Sussex County Council Covid-19 Community Hub.

 

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Posted 11:17 Monday, Dec 7, 2020 In: Covid-19

1 Comment

Please read our comment guidelines before posting on HOT

  1. J B KNIGHT

    Not Surprised.

    But this is only in a week since coming out of Lockdown. So wont get better, will only get worse. People still denying, still calling it a conspiracy and many still not wearing masks and blatantly being in each other spaces and up to the face.

    Comment by J B KNIGHT — Friday, Dec 11, 2020 @ 05:29

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