Coronavirus statistical update: latest data attest to growing number of deaths outside hospitals
As the coronavirus works its way towards peak effect, HOT is providing a regular update of the statistics for our region and the country provided by the public health authorities and other official sources. Evidence is accruing of a sharp increase in the number of Covid-19 deaths taking place in care homes and other non hospital settings. Text and graphics by Russell Hall.
Of deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to April 10 for 2020 in England and Wales, 83.9% (8,673 deaths) occurred in hospital with the remainder occurring in care homes, private homes and hospices according to the latest statistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The provisional number of all deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 10 April was 18,516, of which 33.6% mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)” – up from 21.2% the previous week.
Provisional figures on deaths from Covid-19 in care homes so far this year show the number quadrupled in the week to 15 April. A joint statement from the Department of Health and Social Care and the Care Quality Commission (CQC) said: “CQC’s current preliminary analysis is up to 15 April; it is anticipated that the number of deaths in care homes relating to COVID-19 reported by providers between 11 April and 15 April could be double the number of care home deaths reported [by ONS] yesterday.”
For this year to 10 April there were 214 deaths involving Covid-19 in all settings across Sussex, not just in hospitals, of which 67 occurred in East Sussex (31.3%).
In Hastings there have been three deaths involving Covid-19 this year to 10 April, with a single such death each week for the three weeks leading up to 10 April, with none registered in care homes, representing less than 1% of all deaths in Hastings for this period. The figure is also low in Rother – seven, representing 1.7% of all deaths.
For this year to 10 April there was a total of 5,910 deaths due to all causes across Sussex, with 3.6% of those due to Covid-19.
From week ending 3 April to week ending 10 April the percentage of Covid-19 related deaths in care homes went up from 5.6% to 13.3% and at home from 3.5% to 5.3%, while in hospitals it went down from 89.5% to 79.8%. As more data on Covid-19 deaths in settings outside hospitals becomes available, it is likely that that the profile of non Covid-19 deaths mainly taking place outside hospitals, as shown in the above graphic, will change.
Yesterday the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in East Sussex reached 471, up eight on the previous day, while the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 in the South East fell below 1,900 for the first time in 15 days.
As of 9am 22 April, 559,935 tests for Covid-19 have been concluded in the UK, with 22,814 tests carried out on 21 April. For clinical reasons, some people are tested more than once, so the total number tested was actually 411,192, of whom 133,495 (32.5%) tested positive.
As of 5pm on 21 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 18,100 have sadly died.
For the UK as a whole, 4,451 new cases were confirmed, up 150 on the previous day. However deaths fell back by 64 to 759.
Caveats
A number of caveats need to be borne in mind regarding the PHE statistics:
- Cumulative case numbers include people who have recovered.
- With respect to testing, cases are reported when lab tests are completed, which may be a few days after initial testing.
- Testing capacity is increasing, resulting in a greater number of observed cases.
- Testing capacity constraints mean there are likely many more cases than currently recorded here.
- Deaths recorded by Public Health England include only those in hospital and exclude those in the community and care homes.
- There is a delay in many deaths being recorded from a few days to up to two weeks.
- Deaths tend to be recorded around three weeks after first symptoms in fatal cases.
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